NDIS Shake-Up: What the Changes Mean for Children with Mild Autism

The federal government has announced major reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), sparking widespread debate about the future of support for children with mild to moderate autism and developmental delays.

The Key Change

From mid-2026, children with mild to moderate autism or developmental delays will no longer automatically qualify for the NDIS. Instead, they will be redirected to a new program called Thriving Kids, designed to provide early intervention and support through mainstream services such as schools, GPs, community organisations, and allied health professionals.

By mid-2027, these eligibility changes will be fully implemented. Current NDIS participants in this category will not be removed immediately; instead, they will transition once the Thriving Kids program is fully operational.

Why It’s Happening

The NDIS has faced escalating costs, with annual growth reaching almost 11%. Autism diagnoses now represent around 40% of all participants, and in 2024 alone, 71% of new entrants had autism.

The government argues that the scheme needs to return to its original purpose: supporting people with permanent and significant disabilities. By shifting children with milder needs to an alternative program, the goal is to rein in cost growth to a sustainable 5–6% per year by 2031 while ensuring more tailored support for those with the most complex needs.

The Thriving Kids Program

The new program will be backed by $2 billion in federal funding over four years, with states expected to contribute a matching $2 billion. Instead of navigating the complex NDIS system, families will access supports through everyday settings such as:

• Schools and early learning centres – for educational and developmental support

• General practitioners and Medicare – with expanded developmental checks and allied health rebates

• Community organisations – to help children access therapies, peer groups, and social development

  
  

The government says this will create a more “foundational” model of support, reducing reliance on individualised funding packages.

Who Will Stay on the NDIS?

Eligibility will no longer be based solely on a diagnosis. Instead, clinical and functional assessments will be used to determine the severity of disability and level of need. Children with significant and permanent impairments will continue to qualify for the NDIS.

Reactions from Families and States

The announcement has caused shock and distress among many parents, some of whom discovered the changes through social media rather than direct consultation. Families fear their children could lose essential therapies and progress if alternative supports are underfunded or delayed.

State governments, including NSW, Victoria, and South Australia, have also raised concerns about the lack of clarity on how Thriving Kids will be delivered, warning of potential service gaps unless funding arrangements are finalised.

What It Means Going Forward

The reforms represent one of the biggest shifts in disability policy since the NDIS began. If implemented effectively, Thriving Kids could ensure early intervention is more accessible and reduce pressure on the national scheme. However, families and advocates warn that without careful planning, the changes could leave vulnerable children without the support they need.

For now, the message from government is clear: children with mild autism will not be abandoned, but their support pathway will change. The coming two years will be critical in determining whether Thriving Kids can deliver on its promise.